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2024-12-13 02:48:01

The market finally ushered in a breakthrough on Friday, and a big triangle consolidation from October 8 to now has basically ended. This is only the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are still in the process of triangle consolidation, so it is still difficult to form a consistent upward expectation. In the future, the probability will be mainly divided, and there will be no overall upward trend.Before, we also said that a breakthrough here must be broken by a strong external force, and now the breakthrough stems from the important benefits that everyone has conveyed to the meeting. As long as the content of the meeting has not landed, such an expectation can be taken for a while, and the breakthrough here can also be regarded as an effective breakthrough.This means that the probability of interest rate cuts is increased, the interference of not cutting interest rates is reduced, and more help is added for the market to choose an upward breakthrough.


While the market is gradually standardized, we can also see the long-term trend of the market from the side, and it is more oriented to return to the value itself. Therefore, we should also make preparations in advance and move closer to this direction. When the market clearly turns in this direction, there may be no good opportunities.The market finally ushered in a breakthrough on Friday, and a big triangle consolidation from October 8 to now has basically ended. This is only the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are still in the process of triangle consolidation, so it is still difficult to form a consistent upward expectation. In the future, the probability will be mainly divided, and there will be no overall upward trend.The market finally ushered in a breakthrough on Friday, and a big triangle consolidation from October 8 to now has basically ended. This is only the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index and the Growth Enterprise Market Index are still in the process of triangle consolidation, so it is still difficult to form a consistent upward expectation. In the future, the probability will be mainly divided, and there will be no overall upward trend.


In fact, the market should have been constrained in this way a long time ago. Many industries are prone to various kinds of production capacity, and an industry with good results is hard to survive because of various price wars, which also leads to a very long period for the whole industry to recover.Long-term direction: real estate, kitchen appliances, chicken raising, food, zinc, good free cash flow, high dividends, high dividends, and growth (don't blindly pursue high dividends, be wary of varieties with high dividends and low dividends, and wait for the callback to stabilize and intervene).The non-agricultural rebound in November in the United States exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate rose slightly, pushing up the probability of interest rate cuts this month.

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